Pick 'Em Preview: LSU-Bama will go down to the wireBy Will Harris College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every week to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Tuesdays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews.
Nebraska at Kansas (10 points)
The Cornhuskers gathered the last vestiges of their pride last week and made a decent showing at Texas, building a two-touchdown lead and holding on until midway through the fourth quarter. The Longhorns rallied to win, however, and after the game, athletic director Tom Osborne made a slip of the tongue when he referenced the "new coaching staff." The Huskers also lost quarterback Sam Keller for the season and will have to rely on little-used junior Joe Ganz the rest of the way. Kansas has displayed a stout run defense throughout the season and held Texas A&M's potent ground attack to a mere 74 yards in last week's game. The Huskers won't be able to run it on the Jayhawks, and without Keller's downfield passing abilities, it's unlikely Nebraska will mount much offense. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks' rushing tandem of Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson should find plenty of room against the Huskers' fabled "Career Day" defense, formerly known as the Blackshirts. If Nebraska has quit on its embattled coach, this will be a rout; if not, the Jayhawks will win anyway. Kansas, 38-17
Wisconsin at Ohio State (9 points)
The Buckeyes solidified their hold on the top spot in the national rankings with a dominating victory at Penn State. The next demon up for exorcism: beating Wisconsin in the Horseshoe, where the Badgers haven't lost since 1996. Badgers tailback P.J. Hill is expected to play in this contest, but it's unknown how well his injured foot will hold up. If he must leave the game, the Badgers must turn to untested true freshman third-stringer Zach Brown, since backup Lance Smith is suspended from road games this year. The Wisky defense has shown tremendous improvement during the past two weeks, and while the competition wasn't the toughest, the unit clearly is playing with more purpose. It will need all the defensive mojo it can muster to hold down Ohio State's attack. Even though the Buckeyes aren't that explosive, the defense is so good that no opponent can afford to fall more than two scores behind. The Badgers have the experience, confidence and makeup to take on the nation's top squad on the road, but they aren't built to play catch-up, and they don't match up well against OSU. The Buckeyes are prone to somewhat ugly wins, so the result likely will be another slightly closer-than-expected victory for the host. Ohio State, 24-14
Navy at Notre Dame (8 points)
Notre Dame has beaten Navy 43 straight times, the longest streak of one team beating another in NCAA history. Despite not besting the Irish since Roger Staubach played, this is a game in which the Midshipmen always play hard. Some Navy teams have come tantalizingly close to knocking off some heavily favored Notre Dame squads over the years, and given the state of affairs in South Bend, the Mids have to believe that if it can be done, this is the year to do it. It's hard to assess whether Navy has the goods; while the Midshipmen have put up much better numbers, the Irish have played a far tougher schedule. However, Navy has played Rutgers, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, all schools with respectable defenses, and has rolled up solid rushing totals of 250, 331 and 328 yards. With the Irish allowing 191 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry, there's little reason to believe Navy won't be able to move the chains in its usual impressive fashion. The reason that the 2007 Navy edition is the weakest in a few years is the lack of defense, however. Navy has been getting steamrolled by every opponent. The Mids are surrendering more than 450 yards per game and allowed 59 points to Delaware, 43 to Duke and even 48 to Pittsburgh. It's nearly impossible to serve up that many points to a Dave Wannstedt team, so the Irish certainly will score. Navy's defense is by far the weakest Notre Dame has faced, and with a bye week to prepare, the team should have its best offensive output of the season, especially since Evan Sharpley now is entrenched as the starting quarterback and the schedule finally furnishes an opponent with no pass rush. That said, whatever the Irish muster on offense won't be enough. Notre Dame is averaging 187 yards per game. That total includes only 34 rushing yards. Yes, official NCAA statistics count sacks as negative rushing yards, unlike the NFL, but even so, this is not a team that can keep pace with anyone in a scoring match, and the Mids have the firepower to force the Irish to trade offensive blows. Navy is clearly the better team because the Irish don't have the personnel to attack where Navy is most vulnerable its pass defense. Even with a week of rest, I just can't see Notre Dame matching the sheer desire of the Navy players. This is Navy's best chance to win in this rivalry, and the players know it. They will want it more on Saturday and will pull out all the stops, while Notre Dame will be in danger of playing "not to lose." Navy, 31-21
Arizona State at Oregon (7 points)
This is a fantastic matchup between two very good teams with potent offenses and respectable defenses. The Ducks are more explosive, while the Sun Devils boast the superior stop unit. Interestingly, both teams are positioned to exploit the other's primary weakness. The Devils' running game should punish the mediocre Oregon rush defense, but the Ducks have enough pass rush to capitalize on ASU's pass-protection woes. Both sides also have seen injuries test the offensive depth during the past few weeks, with ASU losing leading rusher Ryan Torain, and Oregon losing backup tailback Jeremiah Johnson, as well as receivers Brian Paysinger and Cameron Colvin. The big injury news, however, is the swollen thumb on ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter's throwing hand. Carpenter finished the game after injuring the thumb during last week's win over Cal, but swelling set in the next day and hasn't subsided enough for him to practice. He's expected to start, but the degree to which the injury will affect his performance is difficult to judge at this stage. The home field and Carpenter's hand are the only differences here. Oregon, 37-31
Wake Forest at Virginia (6 points)
These two teams are remarkably similar. Both feature weak passing attacks that average just less than 200 yards per game, and both run the ball at a pedestrian 3.5-yards-per-carry clip. Both teams' defenses have been solid, both against the run and the pass. The Cavaliers lack any sort of big-play threat on offense but have better personnel in the trenches on both sides of the ball. It's a big game for both teams in terms of the ACC race, with Virginia in control of the Coastal Division and Wake Forest trailing only Boston College in the Atlantic Division. Virginia's Al Groh might get outcoached by Jim Grobe in this game -- a common failing among Deacons opponents -- but a stronger, faster defensive front and the home field are sufficient advantages for the Cavs to notch another close win. Virginia, 9-2
Florida State at Boston College (5 points)
Many people are expecting the Eagles to have a letdown after their stirring comeback against Virginia Tech, but it would take a precipitous drop in focus to lose the edge in intangibles to a Florida State team that already looks like it's playing out the string. Seminoles quarterback Drew Weatherford is on his own this week because of the suspension of co-starter Xavier Lee. Weatherford had a big passing day against Boston College last year, but more than half of the team's catches from that 2006 game have graduated. The Noles' anemic rushing attack won't find any room against the excellent Eagles defensive front, so it'll be up to Weatherford to lead his one-dimensional team to victory against a beatable secondary. Given Weatherford's history, it seems unlikely he'll outplay Heisman frontrunner Matt Ryan. The Seminoles defense will turn in another solid effort, but as is increasingly the case, it won't be enough to secure a win over a quality opponent. Boston College, 21-14
Rutgers at Connecticut (4 points)
Ranked 13th in the latest BCS standings, Connecticut finally is getting some national respect. The big question for Randy Edsall's club is whether the team will have a letdown after the emotional win over South Florida. Connecticut has the defense to slow Ray Rice, and the Rutgers passing game hasn't had the best chemistry lately, so the Huskies can make a case to be considered the better team. But the Knights are a well-coached team with great unity and purpose, and are apt to show up in Storrs hungrier than the host after taking a beating from West Virginia last week. If the Huskies are the least bit complacent or hung over from a win Edsall acknowledged as the biggest in school history, they'll find themselves trailing in this game early, and Rutgers is not a team you want to play catch-up against. The Knights' pass rush will be too much for the Connecticut offensive line, and the pressure will force Tyler Lorenzen into enough bad throws for the Piscataway invaders to come away with the win. Rutgers, 20-14
Michigan at Michigan State (3 points)
Chad Henne and Mike Hart sat out last week's win over Minnesota but are expected back for Saturday's road tilt in East Lansing. The Wolverines still are on a collision course with Ohio State to determine the Big Ten title but would be well-advised not to look past a Michigan State squad with a similar resume. The Spartans are nearly identical to their Ann Arbor neighbor statistically but have two fewer wins to show for their troubles. After giving away a game the team dominated last week at Iowa, this Saturday's game will provide a true test of Michigan State's character. Are the players truly determined to prove they're not the same chokers that wore the green and white in 2005 and 2006, or will the team go in the tank once again? Unlike many teams around the country, six wins virtually guarantees the Spartans a bowl berth, as the nearby Motor City Bowl is headed by former coach George Perles. The Motor City picks last among Big Ten-affiliated bowls, and landing the Spartans certainly would sell a lot of tickets. This team convinced me it had bought into new coach Mark Dantonio's philosophy when it got off the mat to destroy Indiana a week after a demoralizing overtime defeat to Northwestern. Michigan State will want this one more, and the difference in talent isn't as much as you might think. Michigan State, 30-24
Cincinnati at South Florida (2 points)
Both of these squads have dropped two straight after opening the season 6-0, but Cincinnati has had the benefit of a bye week to regroup. South Florida's loss last week at Connecticut was a game the Bulls had every opportunity to win, and the team is doing a lot of soul-searching as it prepares for a game that could completely wreck a once-promising season. The loser will drop into the Big East basement and ruin promising expectations. Cincinnati has the more productive and balanced offense, and should be able to move the chains against a weary USF defense. South Florida's offense is slightly less productive, and the Bulls are suffering from numerous injuries on that side of the ball. Like Tim Tebow at Florida, Matt Grothe is a ball hog, in that far too much of his team's production depends on him. Until the team figures out how to successfully involve more members of the supporting cast, this offense will continue to struggle. The biggest difference in these teams is the Bearcats' pass defense, however, and even with a banged-up receiving corps, Grothe should have one of his better passing days. The fresher team will lead at halftime, but the USF defense will keep the team in the game. The Bulls will rally before the home crowd as Grothe makes the big plays down the stretch and the host wins a close one. South Florida, 21-20
LSU at Alabama (1 point)
Had Saban Bowl I been played last week, the Tigers would have been no match for the surging Tide. Les Miles' team was simply out of gas after three consecutive nail-biters against Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. Alabama, meanwhile, was full of confidence and momentum after demolishing Tennessee. Both teams had a bye, however, and now Bama's momentum has cooled, while the visitor has had time to regroup and recover mentally and physically. Both teams should be at their best and most focused for this clash to determine control of the SEC West, and, by talent alone, LSU is the favorite. Bama's run defense can only hope to slow the Tigers' talented stable of backs; the front seven isn't good enough to play shutdown run defense. The Tide has the better passing game, however, and the Bama personnel are more familiar with LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini's defense than the Tigers are with the Tide's new schemes. The 369 yards Alabama laid on LSU last year were the most by any Tigers opponent, and the Tide has the experience and depth on offense to improve on that figure, even with a reshuffled line. LSU has shown some chinks in its armor, and after several dramatic finishes, this year's Bama team knows it can win games in the fourth quarter. While LSU is the better overall team, experience at quarterback, superior special teams play, better coaching and a huge home field edge will be just enough for the Tide to send yet another top-five team to defeat in what has been a very wacky season. Alabama, 24-23 Will Harris is a fantasy baseball and college football analyst for ESPN.com. |
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